Aberdeen vs Rijeka (Second Leg Preview)

Following the elation of Thursday evening’s result in Rijeka, we now face the reality that this Second Round qualifying tie is not over. We need only examine the evidence in the history of the competition itself. Whether it was in the old Uefa Cup or the current Europa League, there have been several occasions when teams have looked down and out but have upset the odds to recover and progress. Steve McLaren’s Middlesbrough remarkably managed it twice in 2006 against Basel (0-2, 4-1) and Steau Bucharest (0-1, 4-2), Fulham ousted Juventus in 2010 (1-3, 4-1) and most recently Valencia achieved the unthinkable in 2014 recovering from a 3-0 defeat to Basle in the first leg to win 5-0 after extra time in the second.

It has been a disappointing start to the season for Rijeka, mustering a 0-0 draw in their season opener against lesser fancied Inter Zaprešić and conceding a combined six goals in their last two matches against Aberdeen and Slaven Koprivnica. Perhaps we are starting to wonder what all the fuss was about. As they say, however, a wounded animal is often a dangerous one.

So how do the backroom staff approach the second leg and secure progression without being bitten? Here are our thoughts.

5-4-1 (Craig)

Why change a winning formula? After a fantastic performance last week, all eleven men staked their claim to start on Thursday. If all are 100% fit and ready to play, then I do not see a problem with an unchanged line-up.

Despite having the advantage of playing at home, the mentality and playing style should be no different to last week. The only way for Rijeka to reduce a three goal deficit is to chase the game, and pour men forward from the word go. The most effective way to counter this is to play in the same manner as the first leg – neutralise attacks with Jack and Shinnie, and break utilising the pace of Hayes, McGinn, Pawlett and Logan on the counter.

I have highlighted the partnerships in the above squad that will be crucial for safe passage into the next stage of the qualifying rounds:

1. Quinn, Considine, and Taylor.  A back five at home may not necessarily be the most popular choice but aside from two instances at the start of the first half last week, as the team adjusted to their shape, all three centre backs had a solid game. If all three put in similar performances on Thursday then a clean sheet is more than achievable. The waterbreak came at the perfect time last week for these three, and unsurprisingly, Pittodrie will not afford such a luxury therefore a high level of concentration will be required from kick-off to avoid any potential slip-ups.
2. Shinnie and Jack.  Much has been debated among fellow Dandies about what is Shinnie’s most effective position since he signed a pre-contract earlier this year, whether that be left back or in the centre of midfield complementing Jack. In my opinion McInnes should stick with this pairing at least for the next leg as both men successfully frustrated the opposition and broke down play in the middle of the park without losing their discipline. Both exude confidence while on the ball, and their inclusion will enable possession to be retained more efficiently.

Contrary to Jack’s team below, I have stuck with Pawlett. Although not being the most technically gifted player in the team, his presence in the team last week caused Rijeka problems. His movement last week was excellent, always willing to make runs beyond Goodwillie, and to top it off he probably scored the best goal of his career so far. I would find it difficult for McInnes to drop Pawlett to the bench after such a performance.

Prediction – Two nil. Taylor with a bullet header from a corner at the end of the first half and a goal on the counter midway through the second.  It will only take a red card or two early goals for Rijeka to find anyway back into the tie.

(4-5-1) Jack
In order to achieve success in knockout competitions, it is important to make the most of the resources we have at our disposal. The scenario is different to last Thursday in that we already have our lead, therefore it is not necessary to probe irresponsibly but rather it is important that Aberdeen manage proceedings at Pittodrie. Therefore, a strategy of midfield containment and possession is key.

Opting for five in the midfield will ideally frustrate Rijeka and prevent them from having the adequate time to settle on the ball. With two midfielders holding and protecting the back four in the form of Shinnie and Jack, the onus would be on the third central player to provide an attacking outlet. This is where Kenny McLean features prominently.

It is difficult to drop Pawlett on the back of such an impressive performance but the combination of Shinnie, Jack and McLean as a midfield triangle offers a more fluid interchangeability. The Aberdeen eleven seem to be drilled by McInnes and Docherty to be aware of their formational responsibilities. Taking an example from the home leg against Shkëndija, there was an instance in the first half when Shinnie found himself in a high position pressing the opposition and McLean dropped in to cover at left-back momentarily.

As a consequence, if Shinnie was to carry the ball from holding midfield as he successfully managed on one or two occasions in Rijeka then McLean would be able to drop into the holding position alongside Jack. This would be more difficult for Pawlett, as his strengths do not lie in his passing ability and all-round composure on the ball – attributes that would allow us to maintain significant periods of possession.

That is not to propose that McLean spends a lot of time rotating positions with Shinnie but merely to suggest five in midfield is more flexible in allowing both McLean and Shinnie to utilise their attacking strengths. Both McLean’s ability to slide through balls and have the occasional pop at goal from distance couple to make valuable strengths. Hopefully now that the former Paisley midfielder is off the mark, we will see more of his wicked left foot.

A counter-attacking approach would still be the favoured option with Hayes and McGinn breaking on the wings with support from Considine and Logan. As mentioned in the Rijeka review post, Goodwillie offered us respite by bringing the ball down and drawing fouls. Rooney is an expert in the penalty area but Goodwillie allows the ball to stick a bit more in the final third. This is an asset that will be required on the occasions throughout the ninety in which Aberdeen have to play more pragmatically.

Prediction – A score draw. If Aberdeen prevent Rijeka from scoring first and manage to settle the nerves of both the team and the home support with good use of possession then it will be a positive evening for the Dons.

We want to hear how you would line up on Thursday. Post in the comments section or tweet us your thoughts @statsandskirts.